Chien-Ming Wang takes the hill for the Nationals later tonight in his third start back from a devastating shoulder injury two years ago when the Nats start their three game series against the Cubs.  In his first two starts, Wang was very inconsistent, with moments where he flashed his brilliant sinker, and other times when it looked like a high schooler was pitching to major league hitters, allowing 11 runs, 6 earned, in nine total innings pitched.  I charted his last start Wednesday afternoon against the Braves and his performance showed clear positives and negatives.

On the positive side, the velocity was solid on his sinker, hovering around 90-91mph and occasionally possessing great sink and down and in movement to right handed batters, reminding me of his former self from 2006-2008 when he won 46 games in 79 starts with the Yankees.   Also, he flashed a slider with decent tilt on two occasions, which potentially could help keep hitters honest.  Finally, his ratio of 21 ground balls to 9 fly balls (over his two starts) still proves he can induce grounders with his sinker, a key sign that he can get major league hitters out.

Unfortunately too often, especially in the first and fifth innings Wednesday, his sinker morphed into an 86-88mph pitch letter high to batters, which is better known under a different name, a batting practice fastball.  That pitch got hit particularly hard and eventually forced him from the game.  Also, I had Wang for 86 pitches thrown, and two swings and misses from batters, which if correct, is simply a recipe for disaster.  For some quick perspective, it was not rare for Stephen Strasburg to induce two swings and misses in one batter last season: true Wang and Strasburg could not be more different in their styles of pitching, but it is virtually impossible to succeed as a pitcher unless you miss some bats.  Finally, while I mentioned the solid 21 to 9 ground ball to fly ball ratio above, he has also allowed 9 line drives in nine innings, which is a clear sign that he is allowing too much solid contact from opposing batters.

That leaves the Nationals with a big question:  Does Wang simply need more starts and innings to build up his arm strength which will thus allow him to gain a mile or two of velocity and increase the downward sink to his sinker, or has his shoulder injury taken just enough life off his sinker that he will struggle to consistently get major league hitters out?  Wang only pitched 28 innings over six rehabilitation starts in the minor leagues after two full seasons of being injured before being recalled to Washington, not a long period of time of rebuild arm strength.  Wang likely has tonight’s start, and 2-3 more to prove that he still has major league stuff and deserves to be part of the team in 2012.  Otherwise, the Nationals will likely turn to Brad Peacock and Tom Milone (amongst others) from Triple-A Syracuse in September when the rosters expand from 25 to 40 players.  The Nationals have spoken publicly of their desire to give Peacock, Milone and others some major league experience and a chance to make their case for the 2012 roster, which gives me the impression Wang has limited time to impress the organization.

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