NatsGM 1st Round Mock Draft Version 1.0

2011 MLB Mock Draft

1) Pittsburgh -> Gerrit Cole RHP UCLA

I think his talent and potential to be a #1 starter will be too much for them to pass up.  Rendon and Hultzen are the other two names that could be selected here.

2) Seattle -> Anthony Rendon 3B Rice

Seattle has been long rumored to want a hitter, and Rendon is the best college hitter by a solid margin in this draft.  Rendon has a chance to be above average both in the field and with the bat as a third baseman.

3) Arizona -> Danny Hultzen LHP UVA

Similar to my love for the Nationals, the Diamondbacks have loved Hultzen ever since drafting him three years ago in the 10th round.  It would be a surprise to see him slide past Arizona.

4) Baltimore -> Dylan Bundy RHP HS

The Orioles are expected to go pitching with this pick, and are likely selecting between Bundy and UCLA RHP Trevor Bauer.  I think they go with the higher ceiling talent in Dylan Bundy.

5) Kansas City -> Bubba Starling OF HS

I will most likely be proven wrong with this pick, as every rumor circulating has the Royals wanting a pitcher, but I just do not see Kansas City letting such a promising talent slide past them.

6) Washington -> Trevor Bauer RHP UCLA

The Nationals are in a nice position choosing #6 this year, as I see a solid first tier of six players, and Washington will likely select whoever is left over.  It would be interesting to see if Starling and Bauer were available what GM Mike Rizzo might do, as Starling’s talent might be too much to pass on.

7) Arizona -> Francisco Lindor SS HS

Lindor is a strong wiry player that has the defensive skills to stay at shortstop and has solid pop for a middle infielder.  There are reports that Lindor has a private workout in Arizona before the draft, and that might be a good time for them to negotiate a pre-draft arrangement.

8) Cleveland -> Matt Barnes RHP UConn

The Indians tend to prefer college starters in Round 1, and would run to the podium if Trevor Bauer somehow slipped to them.  I expect the Indians to choose a college pitcher from amongst Barnes, Jed Bradley, Taylor Jungmann, and Sonny Gray: I think they go Barnes because he has a bit more upside than the others listed here.

9) Chicago Cubs -> Archie Bradley RHP HS

I believe this is the floor for Bubba Starling, if he somehow slips out of the top five.  The Cubs have been mentioned mostly with high school players so I will give them the second-best high school pitcher in the draft.  Bradley recently hit 101mph on the scoreboard in his high school championship game.

10) San Diego ->Taylor Jungmann RHP Texas

This pick is compensation to San Diego for failing to sign Karsten Whitson last summer, meaning this pick is unprotected if they do not sign someone this time around.  That leads me to believe they will choose a college starter, and the safest appears to be Jungmann from Texas.  He is a big game pitcher who profiles nicely as a workhouse #3 starter.

11) Houston -> Javier Baez HS 3B

Baez is a high school shortstop that will likely outgrow the position, but his bat is pretty special and should profile well at 3B or in the outfield.  The Astros tend to go high school in the first round, and this would be a solid addition to their mediocre farm system.

12) Milwaukee -> Levi Michael SS UNC

Not sure which direction the Brewers will choose to go, but I expect it to be a college player to keep the signing bonus reasonable, and Michael has been linked to them in various rumors.  Michael is questionable to stay at shortstop, but would be above average as a second baseman, and if he improves his defense at shortstop, could be an above average player there as well.

13) New York Mets -> Sonny Gray RHP Vanderbilt

The Mets tend to stay at slot with their first round selections, and would be thrilled to see Sonny Gray available this late.  He does have his negatives (height and fringy changeup) but he might have the best fastball + curveball combination in this draft and is a wise selection here.

14) Florida -> Mikie Mahtook CF LSU

I know the Marlins rarely take a college hitter in the first round, but they did select Mahtook three years ago in the draft, and he would be solid fit with the Marlins organization.

15) Milwaukee -> Cory Spangenberg SS Indian River State College

This pick for Milwaukee is unprotected after the Brewers failed to sign Dylan Covey last summer, so the Brewers will want to be prudent, especially with another first round pick three selections earlier.  Spangenberg has rapidly moved up draft boards this year, as he is a middle infielder with a decent bat.  He has the reputation as an easy sign, and would be a nice choice for Milwaukee.

16) Los Angeles Dodgers -> CJ Cron 1B Utah

With the current financial troubles the Dodgers are going through, I would be surprised if they did not go with a college player who should be relatively easy to sign.  Cron has big power and should move through the farm system quickly.

17) Anaheim -> Taylor Guerrieri RHP HS

The Angels have the reputation of going for high school pitchers early in the draft, and I think they would be pleased to see the 3rd best high school pitcher available here at #17.  I expect they go pitching with this selection.

18) Oakland -> George Springer OF UConn

Seen by many as the second best prospect coming into 2011, he struggled early this season, and scouts have become more concerned with a hitch in his swing.  I have not seen him this year to judge myself, but I have seen him in previous years and he is a talented, athletic kid that should not still be around this late.
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19) Boston -> Alex Meyer RHP Kentucky

The Red Sox drafted Meyer three years ago, and offered him big money to skip Kentucky and go right into professional baseball.  He has matured a lot in his three seasons, from a thrower with strong velocity to a more polished right-handed starter. (For what it’s worth, the Nationals would be thrilled if he was still around at #23)

20) Colorado -> Jed Bradley LHP Georgia Tech

I have read extensively that the Rockies want a college position player here, but I believe Bradley’s value would be too great if he were still available here.  I have a tough time believing he will slip this far, but if so, I think the Rockies would jump at the opportunity to add this quality lefty.

21) Toronto -> Josh Bell OF HS

Recently, Bell has come out and asked not to be drafted, however, I think he will be offered too much money to turn down and will eventually sign late this summer.  Toronto is rumored to be hot and heavy on him and I think he fits well with the organization and the current direction.

22) St. Louis -> Jose Fernandez RHP HS

St. Louis typically prefers college talent early, but they have been linked with high school pitchers this spring and Fernandez has the type of electric arm that would prove difficult to pass on.  Daniel Norris or Joe Ross are two other names that could fit here as well.

23) Washington-> Brian Goodwin CF Miami-Dade CC

The Nationals would hope to see Meyer, Bradley, Springer, or Mahtook to fall to this position.  Since I project all of them to be gone at this point, I think the Nationals will look up the middle and take Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin here at #23.

24) Tampa Bay -> Daniel Norris LHP HS

The Rays have plenty of picks, and will likely be choosing between high school arms in this area of the draft.  I think the Rays will choose the lefty here if he is still available.

25) San Diego -> Kolten Wong 2B Hawaii

The Padres organization is struggling financially, and I would not be surprised if they targeted an easy to sign, quick to the majors type player here at #25.  Wong has a strong track record both in college and in the Cape Cod league, and should be drafted around this area.

26) Boston ->Andrew Susac Catcher Oregon St.

With Boston’s problems at catcher, this seems almost too logical, as Susac is the best college catcher this year and should be relatively quick to the big leagues.  Susac is a good defensive catcher with a little potential with the bat, and has a good chance to be an above average major league starting catcher in time.

27) Cincinnati -> Tyler Anderson LHP Oregon

Cincinnati has a history of going college players, especially in the past few years, and I expect that to continue.  Anderson is a solid lefty with three pitches and should become a #3-4 workhorse starter in the major leagues.

28) Atlanta ->Henry Owens LHP HS

The Braves tend to take high school players, especially position players based in Georgia, in years past, and I expect they will continue the trend of high school players.  There does not seem to be a hometown product worthy of this pick, so I expect they will choose between Owens the lefty, and Robert Stephenson at righty.  All things equal, I think they take the lefty Owens.

29) San Francisco -> Robert Stephenson RHP HS

With the additional revenues earned from the postseason last year, I do not expect the Giants to skimp with this pick.  Stephenson is a local California kid, and likely the best talent available this late in the first round.  He has an electric fastball, and would be a top prospect immediately for San Francisco.

30) Minnesota -> Sean Gilmartin LHP Florida St.

I have a tough time projecting this pick, but I do not see them spending a lot of money, likely ruling them out of the high school pitchers on the board, and the Twins seem to attract solid college starters with good changeups: that is Sean Gilmartin.

31) Tampa Bay -> Jackie Bradley Jr. CF South Carolina

I expect the Rays to take one safe player within their top three selections, and Bradley Jr. is a good player likely to be an easy sign.  He suffered an injury which has robbed him of much of his junior year, but Bradley had strong freshman and sophomore seasons and was dynamite on the Cape last summer.  He should develop into a solid major leaguer.

32) Tampa Bay -> Matt Purke LHP TCU

With the amount of picks the Rays have this year, I expect them to be aggressive and try to choose some players that slip in the draft.  Purke began the year in the discussion to be drafted first overall, but a shoulder injury and loss of velocity has made teams weary of taking him.  The Rays could select him here and watch him this summer to see if his shoulder proves healthy and sign him later in the summer.  If healthy, he would be a steal this late in the draft.

33) Texas -> Austin Hedges Catcher HS

Texas has seen what was once an organizational strength, catcher, turn into a weakness in two short years.  The Rangers spend money on the draft and Hedges is likely the best player still on the board.

34) Washington-> Anthony Meo RHP Coastal Carolina

Meo may not receive the attention of some others in this special draft class, but he has two plus pitches, a 92-95mph fastball and a hammer curveball.  He has pitched well this season, with more than a strikeout per inning and has a good track record in the Cape.  He will need some development time in the minors to polish his repertoire and refine his changeup, but he has the potential to be a solid mid-rotation starter in a few seasons.  That is a solid value at this point in the draft.

 

What do you think?  We will know how I did Monday night.  Thanks again for reading.

 

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