EdatHomeDad via Twitter -> “Dear NatsGM, who will hit .500 first, the Nats or the Orioles?”
Thanks for the question “EdatHomeDad” and I would like to encourage everyone to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom and leave your questions for me there. I decided to answer this question in a “Dear NatsGM” column as I could not sufficiently answer it in 140 characters…
As I type this, the Nationals have a record of 19-21 while the Orioles are currently 19-20. With the way both teams have been playing this season, I would not be surprised if either team spent some time this summer with a .500 record. That said, I expect both teams will be sellers at the trade deadline this summer(especially the Orioles who have plenty of veterans on one-year contracts) which should hinder their ability to win games later this season. I predicted 75-87 for the Nationals prior to the season and I think I will stick with that prediction as of today. I thought the Orioles would be slightly better than that prior to the start of the season, and I still believe they finish with a better record, though barely, than the Nationals, with 77-78 wins.
As for longer-term, I think Nationals fans should expect them to play .500 baseball in 2012, as the youngsters will have another season of experience, the front office will have another winter to add a key free agent or two, and the expected return of Stephen Strasburg should push them to 81 victories. And 2013 should be the season that Nationals fans anticipate being in the thick of a pennant race with a strong chance of making the playoffs.
Longer-term projections for the Orioles are more difficult to forecast, as the biggest impediment to their success frankly is the division they play in. With the financial superiority of Boston and New York, and the terrific front offices in Tampa Bay and Toronto, the Orioles can be largely successful with personnel decisions over the next two seasons and likely still not win 81 games. I do think the Orioles will have above average starting pitching in 2012 with Matusz, Britton, Guthrie, and Arrieta but I worry that the team will not have enough offense to compete with the heavyweights in their division. I hope to be proven wrong, but I think the Orioles will likely be about the same in 2012 and 2013 as they will be this season, competitive but not quite a .500 team.
Thus, in the short-term, I think the Orioles have the better chance at .500 this season, but longer-term, the future seems brighter with the Nationals.
Rob from Cotuit, MA ->”Dear NatsGM, in your mother’s day post you discussed watching the CCBL last summer. With the CCBL rosters set and opening day right around the corner, any predictions for this summer?”
Great question! Like there was any chance I would not answer this question (I am a complete sucker for the Cape Cod League)… As for making predictions, it is nearly impossible as so many things will change between the preliminary rosters and when the season begins (College World Series, Team USA, injuries, etc.). With that said I thought this would be a nice opportunity to highlight a few players on each team and attempt to give a season preview.
East Division
Brewster -> Brewster should again be a difficult team to beat in 2011, with Drew Martinez and Andy Burns returning this summer to lead the top of the lineup. The outfield will be rounded out by talented players Cohl Walla and Andrew Toles. I do worry that as strong as the hitting appears for the Whitecaps, I fear they could struggle on the mound. LHP Jordan John is solid at the top of the rotation, but who will step forward to round out the staff. If they can find some solid starting pitching, this should be a strong sleeper club this summer.
Players to Watch: Memphis CF Drew Martinez, Arizona INF Andy Burns, Texas OF Cohl Walla, Oklahoma LHP Jordan John, and Tennessee OF Andrew Toles
Chatham -> Interesting roster the Anglers have assembled for 2011. They should be solid at the top of the rotation with RHP Hudson Randall and RHP Buck Farmer, accompanied by the underrated RHP Chris Munnelly. However, the lineup does not impress me as I do not see who will provide the power. I like catcher Matt Roberts, and Stephen Perez will handle the job defensively at shortstop but I worry how this team will score runs. Color me skeptical on this year’s Anglers.
Players to Watch: UCLA CF Beau Amaral, Florida RHP Hudson Randall, North Carolina Catcher Matt Roberts, Miami SS Stephen Perez, and Georgia Tech RHP Buck Farmer
Harwich -> What immediately jumps out to me with the 2011 Mariners are how many talented freshman they have on their roster; Kevin Gausman, Brian Ragira and Austin Wilson might be the best three freshman on the Cape this summer (especially Gausman!). The Mariners are loaded in the outfield with Ragira, Wilson, Brian Goodwin (likely a top 35 selection this June) and Jabari Henry, another exceptional athlete. The pitching staff looks a little light to me, but otherwise, this is a very solid roster Harwich has assembled.
Players to Watch: Louisiana State RHP Kevin Gausman, Stanford OF Brian Ragira, Stanford OF Austin Wilson, Miami-Dade CF Brian Goodwin, and Louisiana State SS Austin Nola
Orleans -> The Firebirds have a solid current roster, highlighted by some solid pitching with Michael Wacha, Adam Plutko (watch him, he has good stuff), Matt Sisto, and Kenny Long. The lineup has some solid names but I think is likely a little thinner than manager Kelly Nicholson might prefer. This club should have plenty of pitching, the question is, do they have enough hitting? We shall see.
Players to Watch: Texas A&M RHP Michael Wacha, Stanford OF Jake Stewart, UCLA RHP Adam Plutko, Florida State 1B Jayce Boyd, and Vanderbilt SS Anthony Gomez
Yarmouth-Dennis -> As is the case for the last decade, Y-D looks poised for another successful summer. I am curious how many of these players will reach the Cape this summer, as I suspect many will be invited to play with Team USA. But if Y-D somehow keeps a good portion of their current roster, I see them as the team to beat in the Eastern Division.
Players to Watch: Stanford RHP Mark Appel, Stanford SS Kenny Diekroeger, Florida Catcher Mike Zunino, Stanford IF Stephen Piscotty, and Florida LHP/DH Brian Johnson
West Division
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Players to Watch: Florida Catcher Austin Maddox, Florida SS Nolan Fontana, Auburn INF Zach Alvord, and TCU OF Josh Elander
Cotuit -> Cotuit, as usual, has a strong preseason roster, though I do wonder if Cory Spangenberg will ever see the Cape as he is projected to go in the Top 20-25 picks in this June’s draft and Deven Marrero will likely be invited to Team USA. However, the Kettleers have plenty of solid hitters and some excellent freshman pitching with potential. Coach Roberts should have another solid year, and if he can keep Spangenberg and Marrero, watch out!
Players to Watch: IF Indian River St. Cory Spangenberg, SS Arizona St. Deven Marrero, Oregon 1B/RHP Ryon Healy, Oregon Catcher/OF Stefan Sabol, and Vanderbilt OF Michael Yastrzemski
Falmouth -> The 2011 Commodores are younger and more inexperienced than in previous years, but Rice RHP John Simms is an excellent young arm, Shane Rowland is a solid catcher, and returning OFs Christian Jones and Kyle Von Tungeln should steady the offense. This roster looks a bit weaker with “top-end talent” but I would not be surprised if the Commodores play well as a team and have a successful summer.
Players to Watch: Rice RHP John Simms, Oregon OF Christian Jones, Miami Catcher Shane Rowland, and Rice RHP Tyler Duffey
Hyannis -> While this roster is not stacked with many recognizable names, trust me, this team has some real talent and some interesting players to watch. I am a huge fan of Jacksonville CF Dan Gulbransen (trust me, watch him this summer) and his teammate AB Walker is an impressive looking raw athlete. Cole Frenzel should steady the infield and I would expect Dylan Floro to head the rotation. I like this roster more than most people.
Players to Watch: Cal St. Fullerton RHP Dylan Floro, Jacksonville CF Dan Gulbransen (love this kid!), Arizona INF Cole Frenzel, and Arizona OF Joey Rickard
Wareham -> Bluntly, I know fewer of the players on this roster than any other, but the strong connection of Wareham and Georgia Tech should provide a solid nucleus for the club and Wareham typically does a nice job recruiting some “underrated” pitching each summer. I assume this club will struggle in 2011, but I would not be surprised to see a couple Yellow Jackets breakout this summer and push this club higher in the standings than I might expect.
Players to Watch: Northwestern RHP Luke Farrell (son of Toronto Blue Jays manager John Farrell), Vanderbilt RHP Jack Armstrong, and Georgia Tech 1B/LHP Daniel Palka
Projected Order of Finish:
East Division:
1) Yarmouth-Dennis
2) Harwich
3) Brewster
4) Orleans
5) Chatham
West Division:
1) Cotuit
2) Bourne
3) Hyannis
4) Falmouth
5) Wareham
This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to my sister, and her blog http://www.shannonsmaddfamily.com/. While her blog has nothing to do with baseball, she provides an excellent and often humorous look at raising four children. I hope everyone gives it a read…
Thanks again for all the wonderful questions, please continue sending them to me. If I use one of your questions in a future “Dear NatsGM” column, you will win a NatsGM T-shirt. Please follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, find me on Facebook at NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com