March 1, 2011 

I must say I am fairly surprised to have written about fifteen columns about the Nationals without discussing Bryce Harper: that streak ends today. Drafted by the Nationals with the 1^st overall selection in last June’s amateur draft, Bryce signed just prior to the August 16^th deadline for a $9.9 million dollar major league contract (the largest ever given to a hitter) that included a $6.25 million dollar bonus (the 3^rd largest in draft history). Because he signed so late last summer, he did not play in the minor leagues, instead going straight to the instructional league and then participating as a taxi-squad player in the Arizona Fall League, producing an impressive .343/.410/.629 in 35 at bats. As part of his major league contract, he was invited to Spring Training and should see limited game action this spring before reporting to Low-A Hagerstown to begin 2011. 

Scouting Report: 

Primarily a catcher growing up, the Nationals selected him last June and immediately moved him to the outfield, believing that catching every day would induce unnecessary wear and tear on his body and by eliminating the defensive development needed to play catcher, it should allow his bat to move more quickly through the minor leagues and into the Washington Nationals lineup.  Harper is a true five tool athlete (hitting power/batting average/speed/defense/throwing arm), with indescribable bat speed and incredible balance that allows him the unique ability to consistently square up on the baseball while simultaneously swinging out of his shoes. These talents allows him to hit for power without sacrificing batting average. Bryce possesses a plus to plus-plus arm, and in combination with his athleticism and strong baseball IQ, he should be above average defensively at any outfield position. Lastly, Bryce stands about 6-3 and 215-ish pounds and currently has above average speed, but as he matures and fills out, this tool will probably be closer to average. 

The conventional thinking has been that he would be developed as a right fielder because of his powerful throwing arm and size, but I believe enough in his athleticism that I think the Nationals should keep him in center field until his body fully matures and he outgrows the position. As I mentioned before, his advanced baseball IQ should allow him to get strong jumps in the outfield and help him get the most out of his speed and athleticism. 

The only concern I have with Harper has more to do with the off the field stuff and how he will handle the immense spotlight. Being the most hyped amateur player in baseball history and gracing the cover of Sports Illustrated at sixteen, he is going to have all the media attention he wants and more. How he handles it will ultimately decide his baseball legacy because he truly has too much talent to fail. Assuming he handles this well and avoids injury, his ceiling and his floor are pretty impressive: 

Ceiling: .300, 40+ HRs, 20 SBs… A top three player in baseball 

Floor: .260, 25+ HRs, 10 SBs… An All-Star level player 
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His Path to the Big Leagues 

The Nationals announced last week that they intend to send Bryce to Low-A Hagerstown to begin the season. While this is entirely appropriate, I am a bit surprised that they are not starting him in High-A Potomac, as he faced that level of competition, or better, last fall in the Arizona Fall League and more than held him own. That said, I assume the Nationals want to start him in Hagerstown to temper his expectations and let him “conquer” each level one at a time. My guess is he will play about 40-50 games (150-200 ABs) through May in Hagerstown before receiving a promotion to High-A Potomac around Memorial Day. After that, I would guess the Nationals would keep him there through the summer (250-300 ABs) and assuming everything is progressing well, would move him up to Double-A Harrisburg for the end of the season. By promoting Harper to Double-A prior to the end of the season, it will allow him to represent the Nationals as a full participant in the Arizona Fall League next November. (players in double-A and higher are allowed to participate fully in Fall League games, since Bryce was not at that level this past November, he was forced to the “taxi squad” and was only allowed to play on Wednesdays and Saturdays) 

If he can keep up with this aggressive track, it would set Bryce up to begin 2012 in Double-A Harrisburg and give him an excellent chance to see time with the Nationals late next season.  So no Nationals fans, it is very unlikely you will see Bryce in Washington this season, but he is very likely to be there in 2012 and should be a cornerstone of the franchise beginning in 2013.    

Also, I want to encourage everyone to email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com with questions, general feedback, or topics you might like me to cover. Also, please follow me on twitter @natsgmdotcom.