February 8, 2011
What a great way to begin the day: I opened my calendar and realized that we are only seven days away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Viera for spring training. Before we know it, Opening Day will arrive and we will be watching baseball again. Thank goodness!
The other night while catching up with friends at a Super Bowl party, I had various people in different ways ask me the same basic question: “How good will the Nationals be this season?”
After finishing 2010 with a record of 69-93, an improvement of ten wins from 2009 when the club finished 59-103, the Washington Nationals enter this year with a sense of optimism that better days are ahead… just not likely in 2011. The Nationals seem to be pointing toward 2012 and beyond as the time when the club will be mature and ready for success. While the Lerners and GM Mike Rizzo spent money this off-season, it likely will not result in a drastic increase in wins, as this upcoming year will focus more on player and organizational development than a playoff run in September.
The batting lineup suffered two large losses this off-season with the free agent departure of Adam Dunn to the White Sox and the trade of Josh Willingham to Oakland. However, the middle of the order should remain a team strength with all-star 3B Ryan Zimmerman batting 3rd, major free agent signing RF Jayson Werth batting cleanup and new 1B Adam LaRoche holding down the fifth spot. The Nationals will be counting on improvement both offensively and defensively from young players SS Ian Desmond, 2B Danny Espinosa and LF Roger Bernadina. Finally, holdover CF Nyjer Morgan will look to bounce back from just an awful season in 2010 while Ivan Rodriguez will serve as the starting catcher and mentor as Wilson Ramos and Jesus Flores battle for the backup catching position.
The starting rotation should improve with RHP Livan Hernandez and LHP John Lannan at the top, and the return from injuries of veteran RHP Jason Marquis and promising RHP Jordan Zimmermann. The fifth spot in the rotation will likely be recent trade acquisition LHP Tom Gorzelanny, but expect youngsters LHP Ross Detwiler or RHP Yunesky Maya to push him this year. The bullpen, a major strength in 2010, should remain solid with the return of core members RHP Tyler Clippard, RHP Drew Storen, LHP Sean Burnett, and LHP Doug Slaten in addition to newcomers RHP Henry Rodriguez and RHP Todd Coffey.
The 2011 version of the Washington Nationals should be significantly more athletic, better defensively, and more consistent with their starting pitching while likely seeing declines in home runs, on-base percentage and some natural regression from the bullpen. I expect the Nationals will be more competitive this season and I believe the impressive collection of young talent will step forward and begin to make a name for themselves. This team enters this season as a stronger and more balanced club top-to-bottom than in 2010, but the improvement of the NL East overall this off-season and the injury to Stephen Strasburg likely restricts the improvement the team can expect this season.
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My 2011 Prediction….. 75 Wins – 87 Losses
What do you think? Leave a comment and let me know. I also want to encourage everyone to follow me on twitter @NatsGMdotcom and to email me at nationalsgm@gmail.com.