NatsGM

In a rather freak incident behind home plate Saturday night, Nationals catcher Wilson Ramos caught his cleat in the turf,  tearing the ACL in his right knee which requires probable season-ending surgery.  Although Ramos was having a down season thus far defensively, his bat was beginning to warm up, as he was hitting .265/.354/.398 with three home runs, and his absence from the bottom of the lineup will further weaken an already struggling lineup.  Jesus Flores will now become the starting catcher, and the Nationals have summoned catcher Sandy Leon from Double-A Harrisburg to replace Ramos on the active roster.

Sandy Leon, 23, has long held the reputation as an elite, defensive-first catcher with an underwhelming bat, as evidenced by his career .249/.326/.334 batting line and 11 total home runs in 1,201 minor league at-bats, giving him the profile of a potential major league backup.  However, Leon stood out to me when I visited spring training in March as his swing appeared shorter, quicker, and more compact from previous years and he was punishing the baseball.  Those improvements have carried over from Viera as he has continued to swing the bat well, batting .319/.356/.457 in Harrisburg over 94 at-bats.  Leon will be a below-average hitter with very little power in the major leagues; that said, his defensive skills behind the plate are tremendous and his ability to catch and throw is top-notch, as he has thrown out 46% of attempting baserunners in the minors.  Certainly Leon could use an additional 500+ minor league at-bats to further develop as a hitter, but his defense should prove an immediate asset for the Nationals pitching staff.

The Nationals continue to suffer more than their fair share of injuries to their starters, and this lengthy injury to Wilson Ramos will be difficult for the team to overcome.  Although Flores and Leon are every bit the defensive equal of Ramos, if not a slight upgrade, the team will miss Ramos’ raw power and ability to make contact lower in the batting order.  The mounting injuries at critical positions (Closer, Left Field, Right Field, Catcher, etc.) and their cumulative effects are beginning to catch up with the Nationals and I fear one more injury will be the difference between making and missing the playoffs this fall.  As Mike Morse did last season when given significant playing time, Jesus Flores has a golden opportunity to flourish as a starter, and how he responds to this challenge will be a deciding factor in the Nationals quest for the playoffs.  No question the team will feel an impact from this injury, but I am convinced the tag-team of Flores and Leon will be outstanding defensively and provide enough offense to minimize the impact of the loss of Wilson Ramos.

This “Tip of the Fedora” goes out to all the Moms, Happy Mother’s Day to each of you!  A very special Mother’s Day wish to my Mom, I love you and I miss you-

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Amidst the many positives from the “Take Back the Park” initiative this past weekend against the rival Philadelphia Phillies, early in the game Sunday evening Jayson Werth broke his left wrist attempting to catch a sinking line drive in shallow right field.  Werth had surgery to repair the damage Monday afternoon and the initial prognosis is that he will be out of the lineup for 10-12 weeks, leaving the Nationals to pick up the slack until early August.  Instead of celebrating winning the series against the Phillies and leading the NL East, now the Nationals front office must ponder how to play their outfield with Mike Morse out until mid-June and Werth out until August.

Until Mike Morse returns, Bryce Harper should feel confident that he will be penciled into the lineup every day at one of the corner outfield positions (most likely right field), and Rick Ankiel, overextended as an everyday player, should provide enough above-average defense and occasional power to passably manage center field.  Tyler Moore is better suited as a pinch hitter and occasional starter at this point in his career, leaving Xavier Nady and Roger Bernadina to battle for playing time in left field.  The Nationals could elect a strict Bernadina/Nady platoon, but with Nady’s rapidly declining bat speed and putrid .119/.161/.186 batting line, and Bernadina’s career numbers of .239/.304/.361 (.243/.310/.370 against right-handed pitching) leaves far too massive a hole in an already struggling lineup.  In light of this, I believe GM Mike Rizzo needs to look outside the organization and make a trade, with the best plausible option at this time being Oakland Athletics outfielder Seth Smith.

Smith, 29, has started rather slowly this season, producing a .209/.365/.313 batting line with 2 home runs in 67 at-bats.  However, spanning his six year major league career, Smith possesses a .272/.349/.476 batting line with 53 home runs in 1352 at-bats, and according to the defensive metrics, his defense is average in both left and right field. (Thanks Fangraphs.com)  In addition, Smith, a solidly built athlete with a strong left-handed bat, has hit 15+ home runs in each of the last three seasons, and his career .349 on-base percentage would represent a significant upgrade to the projected Bernadina/Nady platoon in left field.

Granted, it is difficult making trades early in the season for many reasons, but taking into account Athletics GM Billy Beane’s off-season trades of Gio Gonzalez, Trevor Cahill, and Andrew Bailey, Oakland has clearly stated their intention to rebuild for the future when they can relocate to a new stadium in San Jose. In addition Oakland possesses some quality outfield depth, as they traded for Smith and Josh Reddick and signed Yoenis Cespedes, Coco Crisp, and Jonny Gomes as free agents this off-season.  Not to mention, as seen in the Gio Gonzalez trade, the Nationals have a cordial working relationship with the Athletics front office.  Seth Smith makes $2.415 million this season in his first year of arbitration, and for a small market team in the midst of rebuilding, it would be foolish for Oakland not to entertain trade offers for him.

Although this idea I have proposed does not represent the long-term solution in center field Nationals fans have clamored for, I recommend GM Mike Rizzo inquire about the availability of outfielder Seth Smith, as he would represent a significant upgrade from a platoon of Bernadina and Nady.  With the Nationals farm system still feeling the effects of the Gio Gonzalez trade and with most teams still chasing the postseason, the best course of action is a smaller trade to bridge the gap until Morse and Werth return while minimizing the loss of further depth in the minors.  Although Oakland has started the season well, they are lacking delusions of playing in the postseason, and taking into account their outfield depth, I would expect the Athletics to be willing trade partners.  I will not pretend to know what would tempt Oakland to part with Smith, but they acquired him in January from Colorado for the underwhelming package of pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman, so I would surmise that two prospects with potential would intrigue the Athletics front office enough to part with Smith.  I would offer the Athletics two minor league pitchers (Robert Gilliam and Danny Rosenbaum perhaps?) and hope it entices Oakland enough to bring Mr. Smith to Washington.

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Rather overlooked in the midst of Bryce Harper’s debut over the weekend, the Nationals recalled 1B/OF Tyler Moore from Triple-A Syracuse to replace Mark DeRosa, who was forced to the disabled list with an oblique injury.  Moore, a 16^th round draft pick (481^st overall) in 2008 out of Mississippi State, has diligently climbed through the Nationals system since signing his professional contract.  Moore is yet another example of the terrific work the Nationals scouting and development staff have done in recent years finding valuable major leaguers deeper in the draft, namely John Lannan (11^th round 2005), Craig Stammen (12^th round 2005), Cole Kimball (12^th round 2006), Tom Milone (10^th round 2008), and Steve Lombardozzi (19^th round 2008).  This season, Moore continued to punish opposing pitching with a .286/.364/.597 batting line, 7 home runs, 20 runs batted in, and 20 strikeouts covering 77 at-bats.

Tyler Moore, the Nationals 2010 Minor League Player of the Year, hit 31 home runs in back-to-back seasons in 2010 and 2011 at High-A Potomac and Double-A Harrisburg, and in doing so, quickly forced himself into the team’s future plans.  Moore has a career batting line of .266/.319/.487 with 84 home runs and 461 strikeouts spanning five minor league seasons and 1,784 at-bats.  Moore possesses solid right-handed power, especially to left field, but has some length to his swing which causes him to strikeout at a fairly high rate.  Defensively, his solid frame (6-2 215 lbs.) and fringy athleticism makes him a solid defender at first base, and his arm is passable for left field; in addition, I watched Moore take infield at third base during spring training and although there is massive difference between infield practice in spring training and a regular season game, I am convinced Moore could play an adequate third base in a pinch.

While Tyler Moore’s career probably tops out as a quality reserve, his perseverance in making himself into a prospect and the number of doubters he has proven wrong each year makes me hesitate to label him just a backup.   That said, the likelihood of a right-handed slugger with a career on-base percentage less than .320 making it at first base or left field are slim, pointing toward a career as a bench player with some pop.  Considering the dearth of power hitting in major league baseball, a young man with 62 home runs the past two seasons, a career slugging percentage of .487, and some position flexibility stands a realistic chance to carve out a career as an asset off the bench.  The Nationals have struggled in past seasons with a lack of production from their backups – Perhaps they have found a solution in Tyler Moore.

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In light of the necessity to place Ryan Zimmerman on the 15-day disabled list with a bad shoulder, late Friday afternoon the Nationals decided to promote uber-prospect OF Bryce Harper to the major league roster.  Unfortunately, this mildly surprising decision had less to do with the preparedness of Harper for big-league pitching, as he was batting .250/.333/.375 spanning 72 at-bats in Triple-A Syracuse, and far more to do with the lack of offensive production from the team thus far.  Currently 24^th in major league baseball with 71 total runs spanning 20 games, and with injuries to their two best hitters, Ryan Zimmerman and Mike Morse, the front office had little choice but to deviate from the original game plan and promote Harper earlier than anticipated.  While I am sure the front office did not expect Harper on their roster at the end of April, the offensive production from left field where Harper will play has been a woeful .097/.207/.125, thereby forcing the team to promote him to Washington.

Clearly most Nationals fans are excited for Bryce Harper’s debut in a Washington uniform, but the real question is whether or not the team is doing the smartest thing by summoning him to the major leagues.  From a business perspective, in spite of their offensive need, the Nationals sent Bryce to the minor leagues for 20+ days in order to delay his MLB service time an additional season and keep him under contract with Washington through 2018, rather than 2017 if they had made the choice to bring him directly to the big leagues out of spring training.  Therefore, GM Mike Rizzo and the Nationals front office made a wise decision financially and for the future of the franchise.

Logically, the next question is if Harper is prepared to succeed on the field at the major league level.  Many people asked me about Bryce Harper’s talents, and while I can discuss his tools and skills like other scouts, the best way I can describe him is, “imagine when you were a kid and you went to the local playground to play pickup basketball, and imagine the best player on that playground, you know the one, the kid that whichever team he was on always won… now imagine that kid is 5 years younger than everyone else on the court and that’s Bryce Harper”.  Even though in the history of major league baseball there have only been a few hitters that were successful at 19 years of age (Mel Ott in 1928, Ty Cobb in 1906, Cesar Cedeno in 1970, and Tony Conigliaro in 1964) Harper is so advanced I will happily gamble on his enormous talents.  While we should expect some growing pains and struggles as he adjusts to major league pitching, until Mike Morse returns from his injury, Bryce Harper is the Nationals best option in left field.

True, in an ideal world Harper would receive another 250-400 at-bats in the minor leagues to refine his approach at the plate, improve against left-handed pitching, and learn to handle advanced breaking pitches, there is little debate that Harper is a drastic improvement offensively from Roger Bernadina, Xavier Nady, and Mark DeRosa currently playing left field.  Therefore, while I am not a big fan of promoting a player unless they are completely ready, I have stopped questioning the development schedule of Bryce Harper and I think the Nationals are making the proper decision in bringing him to Washington.  The future is now for this precocious youngster.

I encourage you to follow me on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom, “Like” my Facebook page search NatsGM, and email me at NationalsGM@gmail.com.  Thank you for reading!