NatsGM Fantasy Preview – Hitters

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Draft hitting early and often” has long been a mantra in fantasy baseball and there is wisdom in this strategy, as elite batters contribute in all categories and are generally less risky than their pitching counterparts. In fact, in many drafts this year, only one pitcher (Clayton Kershaw) is selected on average inside the top-20 picks. As hitting has continued a steady decline in the past decade, the best hitters are coveted in leagues like bread and toilet paper ahead of a snowstorm. So it is vitally important to draft the “right” hitters early and find some value performers with your later selections if you hope to win your league.

Yesterday in Part-1 I highlighted several pitchers I think will outplay their draft position, along with a few names I will be avoiding in my drafts. Today I pinpoint several hitters I believe are being undervalued plus a few that are overrated by the fantasy community.

Hitters I Like

Freddie Freeman 1B Atlanta Braves (7th-8th Round)

Freeman struggled much like the rest of the Braves in 2015, playing in only 118 games and hitting .276 and 18 home runs. This, along with the expectation that Atlanta could be abysmal in 2016, has the consistently solid Freeman being selected in the 7th round. He may not hit for the power one expects from a first baseman, but the Braves lineup should be better than expectations with Freeman, Inciarte and Aybar atop their lineup. Now that Freeman is healthy, he should return to his usual .290 batting average, with 20+ home runs and 85+ runs batted in, making him an undervalued asset and excellent gamble in drafts.

Adam Jones OF Baltimore Orioles (5th-6th Round)

Jones struggled through a myriad of minor injuries last season to post another solid season in Baltimore, batting .269 with 27 home runs, 82 runs batted in and 3 stolen bases in 137 games. Missing 25 games throughout the year kept his numbers somewhat underwhelming, causing him to slide into the 5th or 6th round in drafts this season. Do not let these minor ailments allow you to pass on this 30-year-old, who should hit #3 in a powerful Baltimore lineup this season. With an offseason to recover, I expect Jones to produce closer to 30 home runs and 90 runs batted in, along with 7-10 steals, making him a 2nd-3rd round value this season.

Evan Longoria 3B Tampa Bay Rays (10th+ Round)

Third base is rather thin and top-heavy this season, with five players going inside the top-25 but only eight players selected inside the top-100. If you miss out on a third baseman early, Longoria will provide excellent value with the chance for some statistical upside if Tampa’s offense can improve in 2016. Longoria has stayed healthy the past several seasons and has consistently provided a .275/20/80 line with a handful of stolen bases – these numbers will not win your league, but should help anchor your infield in 2016.
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Anthony Rendon 3B/2B Washington Nationals (12th-14th Round)

Call me a “fan boy” but I am stunned that someone with Rendon’s talents at the plate is being drafted on average outside the top-125 picks, especially considering the positional scarcity at second base and the hot corner. Certainly there is plenty of health risk involved with him, but there are few players who can return as much value after Round 10 as Rendon. Assuming he stays reasonably health, I project a .285 batting average with 15+ home run and 12+ steals, with upside for more. Draft Rendon confidently and watch him outplay his draft position.

Honorable Mention: Billy Hamilton OF Cincinnati Reds, Mark Trumbo OF Baltimore Orioles, Mark Teixeira 1B New York Yankees, Christian Yelich OF Miami Marlins and Ben Zobrist 2B/OF Chicago Cubs

Hitters To Avoid

Michael Brantley OF Cleveland Indians (7th-9th Round)

Brantley is easily one the best players in the American League, but he falls into the category of better “real life” player than in fantasy. Brantley is an asset in batting average and stolen bases, but his other numbers are just average compared to fellow outfielders. Add in an offseason shoulder surgery and one should question how much he will produce in the 1st half of the season. This risk, along with a lack of upside this season, makes him a poor value inside the top-100 picks.

Miguel Sano DH/OF Minnesota Twins (4th Round)

Sano is an immense talent and should develop into one of the elite sluggers in baseball, but the hype has reached epic levels with this 22-year-old. While he hit 18 home runs last season in 80 games, he also struck out 119 times in 279 at-bats, clearly an unsustainable rate. These whiffs should drag down his batting average and he is not a big threat on the bases, making him a three category player at best. Considering his age and contact rates, let some else select Sano in Round 4 and select a safer player such as Yoenis Cespedes, George Springer or Lorenzo Cain.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Nelson Cruz OF Seattle Mariners, Dee Gordon 2B Miami Marlins, Jason Heyward OF Chicago Cubs, Jonathan Lucroy Catcher Milwaukee Brewers, Ben Revere OF Washington Nationals

NatsGM Fantasy Preview – Pitchers

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Pitching in fantasy baseball always invokes many strategies, as the best pitchers are traditionally only capable of helping in four of the five pitching categories, whereas the best hitters contribute across the board. This, along with the elevated injury risk involved with pitchers and the diminishing offense around the majors in recent years, often has people avoid pitching early in fantasy drafts. However, after years of the depth in fantasy being on the mound, 2016 feels like a year when the tide begins to turn, as pitching feels comparably weaker than in previous seasons.

Today in Part-1 of the NatsGM 2016 Fantasy Baseball Preview, I highlight several pitchers I like more than the consensus, and two names I will be avoiding in drafts. Select these names to form the nucleus of your pitching staff, and confidently begin building a shelf for your newest fantasy baseball trophy.

Pitchers I Like

Cole Hamels LHP Texas Rangers (10th/11th Round)

After many years of rumors, finally last summer Philadelphia dealt Hamels to Texas for an impressive haul of prospects. Hamels has suffered in recent years obtaining wins due to the Phillies poor on-field performance, but his numbers have remained consistent, with a 3.65 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and 215 strikeouts in 2015. He should have a good shot at 15 wins and 200 strikeouts again this year, making him quite a bargain outside the top-100 picks.

Kenta Maeda RHP Los Angeles Dodgers (15th+ Round)

Maeda did not receive the massive salary outlay expected prior to the winter, due to some “abnormalities” in his physical examination. However, his numbers previously in Japan have been extraordinary and the transition with Japanese pitchers has been relatively smooth in the past decade. Hitters should struggle for the first few months trying to learn Maeda’s tendencies, which should benefit the Dodgers and fantasy players alike. The Dodgers are expected to have a strong team and quality bullpen, which will help Maeda win his share of games this season. If Maeda can stay healthy, I can see 14 wins, a 3.70 ERA and 180 strikeouts from him this season, making him an excellent value outside the top-150 to 175 picks.

Shelby Miller RHP Arizona Diamondbacks (15th+ Round)

The key piece in this winter’s most controversial trade, the Diamondbacks parted with a significant prospect haul to bring Miller to Arizona to team with Zack Greinke and Patrick Corbin atop their rotation. The negativity from this swap, plus Miller’s incredible allergy to wins last season, has driven him outside the top-175 picks this year. However, do not overlook this talented 25-year-old, who posted a 3.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 171 strikeouts in 2015. If the wins can normalize, I foresee Miller providing Arizona with 12-14 wins, a 3.70 ERA and 180 strikeouts this season, a strong addition to any fantasy rotation.
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John Lackey RHP Chicago Cubs (15th+ Round)

The Cubs made several higher profile moves this offseason, but the veteran addition of Lackey to their rotation could arguably be their best transaction of the winter. Lackey quietly posted an outstanding season in 2015 with 13 wins, a 2.77 ERA and 175 strikeouts and should slot well behind Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester in the Cubs’ rotation. Lackey is not a sexy pick, but at this point in the draft, the consistency of a 12-14 game winner with solid ratios and 160+ strikeouts should not be ignored.

Honorable Mention:     Steve Cishek RHP Seattle Mariners, Yu Darvish RHP Texas Rangers, Sonny Gray RHP Oakland Athletics, Hisashi Iwakuma RHP Seattle Mariners and Justin Verlander RHP Detroit Tigers

Pitchers To Avoid

Kenley Jansen RHP Los Angeles Dodgers (5th round)

Due to Aroldis Chapman’s legal issues and Craig Kimbrel’s non-elite 2015 season, Jansen finds himself being chosen as the top closer option this year, going in the middle of Round 5. He is a tremendous reliever and will help a team’s ratios and strikeout totals. However, his statistics do not deserve a premium on draft day compared to similar closers Cody Allen, Trevor Rosenthal or Ken Giles, being selected several rounds later.

Matt Harvey RHP New York Mets (3rd Round)

The risk factors with Harvey are overwhelming – first, he threw a career high 216 innings in his first season back from Tommy John surgery in 2015. Next his middle infield and projected overall team defense behind him in 2016 should be below-average, to be kind. Finally, he is being selected in the middle of round 3, ahead of other Aces Chris Archer, Dallas Keuchel and Zack Greinke. Harvey could have another fantastic season for the Mets, but let a fellow competitor take on the health risk and pick from similar starters such as Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber or Greinke.

(Dis)Honorable Mention: Wei-Yin Chen LHP Miami Marlins, Gio Gonzalez LHP Washington Nationals, Michael Pineda RHP New York Yankees and Noah Syndergaard RHP New York Mets

THE NatsGM Show #59 – Guest Mike Gianella

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The NatsGM 2016 Fantasy Baseball Preview Week has arrived and to kick off the festivities we are proud to welcome Baseball Prospectus’s Fantasy Expert and 2015 LABR & Tout Wars Champion Mike Gianella.

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Thank you to Mike for joining the show and to you for listening.  Please Rate & Review & Subscribe to the show on iTunes and follow us on Twitter @Nats_GM.

THE NatsGM Show Episode #58 – Special Guest Danny Rouhier

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Episode #58 of THE NatsGM Show has arrived and we are proud to welcome Co-Host of the Grant and Danny Show on 106.7 The Fan, Danny Rouhier.

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Thank you to Danny for joining us and to you for downloading!  Please Rate & Review the show on iTunes and Follow us @Nats_GM!