I’ll Trade You A Tanner – Washington Trades Tanner Roark to Cincinnati

In their first move at the 2018 MLB Winter Meetings, Wednesday the Washington Nationals announced they had traded RHP Tanner Roark to Cincinnati in exchange for RHP Tanner Rainey.  Recent rumors had Washington’s front office uneasy about paying Roark’s expected $10 million salary next season in his final year before free agency, preferring to reallocate those funds.  Conversely the Reds had prioritized acquiring starting pitching this offseason, and used surplus bullpen depth to bring Roark’s talents to Cincinnati.

The 32-year-old Roark struggled through mechanical issues during 2018, but rebounded to provide Washington with a 9-15 record, a 4.34 ERA and 146 strikeouts over 180.1 innings pitched. It was a tale of two halves for Roark, who had a 4.87 ERA in the first half and 3.43 ERA in the second.  Over his 6-year career, Roark has provided the Nationals with 64-54 record and a 3.59 ERA over 935 innings pitched.  A durable workhorse, Roark has thrown 180+ four of the past five years and each season he was used as a starter.  Unfortunately, his ERA has been above 4 in three of the past four years, making Washington feel his durability is not as valuable as his productivity at his projected salary.

In return Washington receives almost 26-year-old right-handed reliever Tanner Rainey, who was Cincinnati’s 2nd round pick in 2015 and briefly reached the majors last season.  Rainey’s cameo in the big leagues was a bigger disaster than the movie Waterworld, as he threw only 7 innings but earned a 24.43 ERA with 12 walks and 4 home runs allowed against only 7 strikeouts.  In contrast, however, Rainey was outstanding at Triple-A in 2018, throwing 51innings and allowing only 25 hits and 35 walks against 65 strikeouts. 

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Rainey is blessed with dominant, back-of-the-bullpen stuff, possessing an upper-90s fastball that touches 100mph, along with a hard 90mph slider and the occasional changeup.  As the high walk totals confirm, Rainey possesses below-average or worse command.  He will need to improve this in order to reach his ceiling as a high-leverage late-inning reliever: his likely major league role will be working in middle relief, with underwhelming statistics compared to his impressive repertoire.

Overall this is a difficult trade to analyze, as this move feels like the first in a series of two or three connected transactions.  Washington’s biggest present weakness before this trade was their starting pitching depth behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and newly-signed Patrick (Don’t Call Me Baron) Corbin, and this move further depletes this area of need. 

In a vacuum, this trade was purely a salary dump for the Nationals, who did not want to pay Roark $10 million for 2019.  Through that lens, General Manager Mike Rizzo did well to clear all of Roark’s salary and receive a major league ready reliever with premium stuff.  Rainey is likely destined for a maddening career in middle relief, but there is a chance a change of scenery helps him improve his control. Nevertheless, I believe the Nationals (and their fan base) are woefully underestimating the importance of Roark’s durability, and I strongly fear this trade comes back to bite them in 2019. While I would happily gamble on Rainey’s upside, I would have passed on this offer from Cincinnati.

NatsGM Grade ->             C-

There’s A New Ace In DC – Washington Signs Patrick Corbin

After rumors had been circulating the past few weeks, Monday news broke the Washington Nationals and free agent LHP Patrick Corbin had agreed to terms on a 6-year deal worth $140 million.  The contract surprisingly only has $10 million in deferrals, according to Jayson Stark at The Athletic, which is due between November 2024 and January 2026.  In addition, since Washington exceeded the luxury tax in 2018, they will surrender their 2nd and 5th “highest” draft picks next June, along with $1,000,000 from their 2019-2020 international free agent signing bonus pool.

A 2018 all-star and two-time all-star selection, Corbin just completed his finest season of his 6-year major league career, throwing 200 innings with a 3.15 ERA and allowing only 162 hits and 48 walks against 248 strikeouts.  For his career, the 29-year-old Corbin has thrown 945.2 innings, all with Arizona, with a 3.95 ERA and 897 strikeouts.  Corbin features a traditional four-pitch repertoire, highlighted by a low-90s fastball with heavy sink and a devastating low-80s slider, along with a curveball and the occasional changeup.  Corbin altered his approach attacking hitters last season, throwing his fastball less than 50% of the time, while upping his slider usage above 40%.  Washington is gambling this tweak that helped him blossom into a front-of-the-rotation starter is sustainable going forward.

This signing does come with plenty of risk, even above what would be expected when signing a 29-year-old starter to a six-year contract.  Corbin underwent Tommy John surgery earlier in his career, forcing him to miss all of 2014, most of 2015, and he struggled mightily in his first full season back in 2016.  Furthermore, Corbin saw his fastball velocity drop more than 1mph this past May, although it did rebound by the end of the season.  Recovering that velocity is a terrific sign and no question he was a terrific pitcher without it, but it is a warning sign for a pitcher with past arm issues.  Finally, Corbin relies heavily on his slider and has increased the usage of the pitch the past four seasons: this is not a problem in isolation, but the slider is probably the most strenuous pitch on the arm and could strain his repaired elbow.

That will likely take their Learn More order levitra online your memory as well as towards the hand of hockey. You can step into any of your illness you must visit a viagra buy cheap store which offers everything in generic medicines. Nevertheless, the herb Shilajit is effective in cialis viagra canada the male body up to 36 hours. Information on erectile dysfunction/impotence http://seanamic.com/ order cialis Basically the two issues that trouble them. Overall this signing leaves me feeling extremely conflicted.  On one hand, Washington desperately needed another starting pitcher, preferably a lefty, to replace Gio Gonzalez and Corbin was arguably the best starter available this offseason.  Washington has achieved their greatest success when they have a formidable starting four and Corbin’s addition gives the Nationals one of the best starting rotations in baseball.

On the other hand, this signing has a tremendous about of risk associated with it compared to the upside reward.  Considering the large financial commitment, Corbin feels less established than most players receiving this type of contract and Washington is clearly buying future performance, rather than his past results.  I find it intriguing the organization is buying in on his change in approach, but this contract has a strong chance of being a net negative.

Additionally, my biggest concern with this signing is the potential chain effect it has on the roster going forward.  I worry this signing will force Washington to let Bryce Harper depart as a free agent, and could possibly raise the salary demands on a contract extension with Anthony Rendon.  Without question the salaries will be different, but choosing Corbin at the expense of Harper or Rendon is a decision I would not support.

In a vacuum I feel as though the signing is a slight overpay for a talented but risky pitcher.  I appreciate that the Nationals identified their biggest weakness and aggressively filled it with the best available option.  However, his injury risk would have had me reluctant to sign him at this cost and I wish Washington would have filled this spot with a cheaper alternative.  The contract risk, combined with the additional, self-created, concerns make this one of the first Nationals’ moves in recent memory where I am negative.

NatsGM Grade  ->           D

THE NatsGM Show #140 – Guest Adam McInturff

THE NatsGM Show episode #140 is now available for download and we welcome back friend of the Podcast and Assistant Director of Pro Scouting for 2080 Baseball, Adam McInturff.

On this episode Adam and I take a deep dive into the recent Nationals’ acquisition of Yan Gomes.  We discuss what Washington is receiving in Gomes, and how he should pair with Kurt Suzuki next season.  Then we describe the two prospects Washington sent to Cleveland, Daniel Johnson and Jefry Rodriguez, in terms of their future major league potential.  Finally Adam talks about seeing Nationals top prospect Mason Denaburg pitch in instructs, along with two sleeper names in Washington’s farm system.
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Thanks to Adam for being so gracious with his time, and for 2080 Baseball for helping liaison our conversation.  And finally, thanks to you for downloading!

Washington Brings The Hammer, Re-Signs Sammy Solis

Somewhat lost amidst news that Yan Gomes was coming to Washington, Friday the Nationals agreed to terms with LHP Sammy Solis on a 1-year deal worth $850,000.  Last season Solis struggled mightily for the Nationals, posting a 6.41 ERA over 39.1 innings, leaving many speculating if Washington would tender him a contract this winter.  Not only did they tender him, they agreed to a contract rather than going to arbitration.

The 30-year-old Solis has battled through a rather uneven career in Washington, having periods of dominance and streaks of poor performance.  In his four major league seasons, Solis has a career 4.51 ERA with 136 strikeouts against 121 hits and 56 walks allowed over 127.2 innings pitched.  Somewhat surprisingly, Solis has fared better in his career against righties, allowing a .701 OPS to right-handed hitters verses a .759 OPS against lefties.  This issue was further exacerbated in 2018, as he allowed a .993 OPS to lefties against a .719 OPS verses righties.  Solis has electric stuff, featuring a mid-90s fastball, curveball and changeup, yet has never been able to fully put everything together, struggling with walks (3.9 BB/9 career) and home runs (1.0 HR/9 career).

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After last season, I must admit I thought Sammy Solis’s time in Washington would come to an end this winter.  And there is still a chance he could be elsewhere next season, either by trade this offseason or Washington could release him prior to Opening Day and only owe him 1/6th of his salary.  But considering Washington aggressively signed him and Solis is out of minor league options, I expect to see “The Hammer” in Washington’s bullpen next season.

Assuming this to be true, I would like to see Washington stretch out Solis in spring training, with the idea of using him in a multi-inning relief role next season.  In this scenario, Solis would avoid working as a lefty specialist, and by facing multiple batters, Martinez would be forced to limit his usage and space out his appearances.  This would give Solis more days off to keep his arm fresh and give him his best chance for success.  And for Washington, this would give Martinez a multi-inning lefty capable of touching 97mph, quite a weapon to deploy a couple times a week.  There is a large risk of bust with this signing, but the potential reward if Solis clicks makes him a worthwhile gamble at this price.