Mocking The MLB Draft – Projecting the Washington Nationals 1st Round Picks

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Happy 2016 MLB Draft Day! The Washington Nationals select #28, #29 and #58 this evening and are poised to add significant talent to their already solid farm system.  In lieu of writing another mock draft, today I will highlight several players who could be available to Washington when they are on the board in Round 1 and foolishly will predict whom the Nationals will select.

Names To Remember

Kyle Funkhouser              RHP       University of Louisville

A Scott Boras client, Funkhouser was drafted last summer by the Dodgers 35th overall but failed to sign and returned to Louisville for his senior season, where he scuffled much of the year.  When he is on, Funkhouser features a 92-95mph fastball with excellent life, along with an average curveball and slider, plus a fringy changeup.  His stuff, as with his command, will waver during and between starts, making his inconsistency rather maddening.

His supporters see a relatively easy to sign senior with some remaining potential and a future back-end starter.  Conversely his detractors see the poor command, “good” off-speed pitches and a likely future in the bullpen.  While I am not confident projecting Funkhouser inside the top-30 picks, I feel safe predicting his floor is Washington’s 2nd round pick, 58th overall.

Eric Lauer                            LHP        Kent State University

Lauer is a polished lefty with a quality 4-pitch repertoire, including a low-90s fastball, an average or above-average curveball and slider, plus a fringe-average changeup.  He has a solid, physical build, with some projection remaining, allowing scouting to profile him as a workhorse capable of pitching 180+ innings per year.  Lauer’s simple, repeatable motion allows him to consistently epper the strike zone. The lack of elite velocity or plus off-speed pitch limits his ceiling, but Lauer projects as a strong #4 starter.

Drew Mendoza                 SS/3B    Florida HS

Another Scott Boras client, Mendoza has naturally been linked to the Nationals in many mock drafts.  Mendoza possesses a sweet, compact left-handed swing with solid barrel skills and projects to develop power as he matures.  He was a shortstop during high school, but because of his relatively large, thick frame, most assume he moves to third base as a professional.  I have heard a “poor man’s Kyle Seagar” on Mendoza, which would make him an intriguing pick late in Round 1.

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The starting catcher for the University of Virginia, Thaiss possesses raw power to all fields in his left-handed swing and scouts also project him to hit for average in pro ball.  The real question with Thaiss involves his defense – while his arm is strong and he can catch-and-throw reasonably well, his skills blocking pitches and receiving could use work.  He has improved in his three years in college and has a strong work ethic, so teams believe he can stay behind the plate for the long-term.  If not, however, Thaiss’ bat does not profile well at first base and I am not certain he is athletic enough to play the outfield.  In a draft light on polished bats, Thaiss is an easy top-30 pick.

THE NatsGM Predictions ->        

#28         Alec Hansen RHP University of Oklahoma           

Hansen begin the year on the short list to go 1st overall, as he possesses a prototypical pitcher’s frame, a mid-to-high-90s fastball and will show a plus slider, curveball, and changeup at times.  Unfortunately he struggles with his command of the strike zone, and suffered through a difficult draft year, including being banished to the bullpen mid-year.  He returned late in the season and performed well, giving scouts who want to believe in him a reason to continue liking his potential.

In addition Hansen does have some injury issues in his past as well, making Hansen a true boom-or-bust prospect.  That said, it is nearly impossible to find a “starter kit” with this type of potential typically at #28, and his upside could be too much for Washington to pass on.  I have not heard him linked at all to Washington, but this just feels like a Rizzo pick.

#29         Will Smith Catcher University of Louisville

Will Smith has begun flying up draft boards this spring, as Louisville has several top prospects and scouts have watched him handle the impressive Cardinals’ pitching staff.  Smith is a former shortstop with good athleticism and a solid throwing arm, making him a quality athlete for a catcher.  He is still a bit raw to the finer points of catching (blocking, receiving, calling a game) but scouts are sold he will remain behind the plate as a professional.

At the plate Smith shows good contact skills and the ability to draw a walk, as evidenced by his .500+ OBP this season and 7% strikeout rate for the year.  He has a bit of power to his pull side, but he does not project to hit more than 7-12 homers at peak.  He has the potential to be an average hitter and above-average defender, making him quite a value here at #29.

Who do you think Washington will select tonight?  Leave your predictions in the comment’s section!

Scouting the MLB Draft – Spotlighting the Top Hitters

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The 2016 MLB Draft commences tomorrow night, which is like my birthday, Christmas and New Year’s Eve all rolled into one grand three day marathon.  As a reminder, I will be Live Blogging all three days and 40 rounds of the draft, so PLEASE join me with your questions, comments and hot takes.

Yesterday we highlighted several of the top pitching prospects available in this year’s draft class – today we continue our draft coverage by examining some of the top hitters who will be selected early in Round 1.

Top Bats

Kyle Lewis           OF  Mercer University

Following an outstanding campaign last summer on Cape Cod, Lewis has continued to dominate the Southern Conference this spring.  The right-handed hitting Lewis has massive raw power to all fields, and although there is swing-and-miss in his game, most scouts believe he will hit in pro ball.  Lewis is not a blazing runner, leading to questions if he will stay in center field long-term.  Most likely Lewis moves to right field, where he fringe-average speed and strong arm profile well.  There are questions in Lewis’s game, particularly the level of competition he has faced, but he has the potential to be terrific major league outfielder in a few years.

Corey Ray            OF  University of Louisville

Ray has been a vital three-year starter for Louisville, acting as a major cog in their lineup.  The left-handed hitting Ray has quick wrists and healthy bat speed, leading scouts to project him to hit for both average and power at the next level.  The real question with Ray involves his future defensive position, as his fringe-average arm could push him to left field as a professional.  Nevertheless, his track record of performance and skills at the plate should have him drafted in the top-8 picks.

Blake Rutherford             OF California HS

Rutherford entered the year as the top prep hitter in this class, as he has excellent bat speed in his left-handed swing, showing the ability to barrel the baseball and hit for power.  In an effort to hit for power this spring, Rutherford has not dominated the competition as expected, causing scouts to have some prospect fatigue with him.  Defensively there are questions if the 6-2 200lbs Rutherford will stay in center field in the future, though rumors are he improved as a senior.  His detractors see a 19-year-old with limited projection remaining and some defensive questions, while his fans see a polished hitter who plays a solid center field.  The team that believes in him should draft him inside the top-15 picks on Thursday.

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The debate in California among scouts this spring has revolved around which outfielder they prefer, Blake Rutherford or Mickey Moniak.  Moniak is a lithe, projectable athlete with above-average speed and is a sure-fire long-term center fielder.  At the plate Moniak peppers the gaps with impressive barrel control and scouts believe he will generate power as he matures physically.  His bat is not as polished as Rutherford’s and does not project for the same power, but his overall impressive assortment of tools and projectable body will have him drafted inside the top-12.

Nick Senzel         3B  University of Tennessee

The MVP of the Cape Cod League last summer, Senzel is a joy to watch swing the bat.  A right-handed hitter, Senzel has a quick, linear swing which produces plenty of hard contact and doubles in the gaps.  Scouts question how much power he will hit for as a professional, though his displays in batting practice have some scouts projecting average power for him.  Defensively he has silenced critics this spring, playing a solid third base for Tennessee and even moving to shortstop for several weeks during the season.  A few baseball people have put a right-handed hitting Bill Mueller “comp” on Senzel.

Zack Collins        Catcher  University of Miami

The left-handed hitting Collins has easy plus power and displays it both in batting practice and during games.  He works counts well, draws walks, and shows the ability to barrel the baseball.  While he lacks his pure power, the comparisons with last year’s #4 pick Kyle Schwarber are evident.

Defensively Collins lags behind his bat, though he has shown marked improvement this spring.  He has a solid arm, but struggles receiving the ball and with his footwork.  Scouts like the improvements he has shown behind the plate, leading some teams to believe he can develop into a passable catcher with proper coaching.

Matt Thaiss        Catcher  University of Virginia

Similarly to Collins, questions surround Thaiss’ defensive ability behind the plate, as he is not as fluid blocking pitches or quiet receiving the baseball as one would generally like from their catcher.  However, he has a strong arm and possesses an excellent work ethic, leading some to believe he can stay at catcher.  That said, the strength of his left-handed bat is what will get him drafted in Round 1, as he has plus raw power to all fields and a keen batting eye.  The team confident in developing and refining his catching skills will likely pick Thaiss in the 2nd half of Round 1.

Others of Note: (College)  Bryan Reynolds OF Vanderbilt, Buddy Reed OF University of Florida, Chris Okey Catcher Clemson, Will Craig 3B Wake Forest & Anfernee Grier OF Auburn – (High School)  Delvin Perez SS, Taylor Trammell OF, Josh Lowe 3B, Nolan Jones SS/3B & Alex Kirilloff OF

Scouting the MLB Draft – Spotlighting the Top Arms

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With the 2016 MLB Draft now only 2 days away, NatsGM begins our Draft Week coverage by highlighting several of the top pitchers available in this year’s crop.  Currently the depth of this class is the college pitching outside the top-20 picks and the abundance of high school arms.  While I cannot mention every top name, these are several players who should be selected early in Round 1 Thursday night.

A.J. Puk                                LHP University of Florida

A massively built 6-7 230lbs lefty, A.J. Puk has been on scout’s radar since high school, but he spurned a likely early round selection to attend Florida.  Puk owns a strong 3-pitch repertoire, including a 94-98mph fastball with life, a hard upper-80s slider with tilt and a mid-80s changeup.  His motion is not the cleanest and he has a peculiar arm swing during his delivery, which creates Puk’s biggest weakness, his command and control of the strike zone.  These criticisms aside, when Puk is on, he has a flawless pitcher’s frame and the potential for 2 plus-plus pitches, making him the top prospect in this draft class.  Puk will go inside the top-5 picks and could go 1st overall.

For more information, please read my recent column on Puk -> http://natsgm.com/2016/05/16/armchair-evaluation-university-of-florida-lhp-a-j-puk/

Jason Groome                   LHP  New Jersey HS

Perhaps the top high school prospect in the 2016 class, Groome immediately catches the eye with his tall frame, long legs and projectable body. Standing 6-6 180lbs Groome has an easy, repeatable delivery with a natural rhythm throughout and gets quality extension toward home. Groome also impresses with how effortless he achieves his velocity, sitting 92-95mph with strong command of his fastball and showing off a sweeping 73-75mph curveball. In addition Groome also throws a mid-70s changeup with outstanding deception, replicating his fastball arm speed perfectly.

There have been questions about Groome’s maturity this spring, perhaps the only negative in his profile.  Groome possesses everything one would seek in a top high school pitching prospect and should not escape the first ten picks.

Riley Pint                             RHP  Kansas HS

Possessing a projectable, dreamy 6-4 192lbs frame, Riley Pint looks the part of an Ace when he toes the rubber.  First and foremost Pint is known for his exceptional velocity, sitting upper-90s and often hitting triple digits with some arm-side movement.  In addition to the fastball, Pint shows both a slider and a curveball, along with a potentially plus upper-80s changeup.  Like most high school pitchers, his motion needs refining, but Pint has electric top-of-the-rotation stuff that cannot be taught and should be drafted inside the top-10 picks.
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Dakota Hudson                 RHP  Mississippi State University

After an impressive performance last summer on Cape Cod, Hudson has continued to build off that success this season for the Bulldogs.  Listed at 6-5 225lbs, Hudson possesses an ideal pitcher’s frame, along with a strong 4-pitch arsenal.  Hudson’s fastball sits 93-97mph with electric life, a nasty upper-80s cutter, a quality curveball and a changeup.  His command is below to fringe-average currently, the biggest knock in his profile.  However, his cutter might be the best pitch in this draft class, and as likely the 2nd best college pitcher available, he should go inside the top-15 picks.

Jordan Sheffield                RHP  Vanderbilt University

Another in the long line of Vanderbilt starting pitchers, Sheffield has long been known to scouts, as he was a potential 1st round pick in high school.  Sheffield possesses a lightning-quick arm, which produces a mid-90s fastball, a hard-breaking curveball and an impressive changeup. Sheffield does have warts, as physically he is a smallish 6-0 180lbs with a previous Tommy John surgery on his resume, and he struggles to command the strike zone.  However, the athleticism and excellent arm speed are easily evident, plus his potential for three above-average to plus pitches.  Sheffield should continue the Commodores streak of 1st round starting pitchers, going off the board quickly outside the top-10.

Zack Burdi                           RHP  University of Louisville

Burdi served as the closer for Louisville this season, dominating the competition with his 100+ mph fastball and powerful high-80s slider.  Furthermore Burdi shows a quality changeup and his motion does not scream “reliever”, leading teams to wonder if he can be developed as starter as a professional.  The team that believes in him as a starter will likely draft him around #15-#30, with a backup plan being a future as a late-inning reliever.

Eric Lauer                             LHP  Kent State University

One of the top pitchers on Cape Cod last summer, Lauer is a polished lefty with a quality 4-pitch repertoire, including a low-90s fastball, an average or above-average curveball and slider, plus a fringe-average changeup.  His physical build portends a durable workhorse capable of pitching 180+ innings per year and his simple, repeatable motion should allow him to pound the strike zone. The lack of elite velocity or plus off-speed pitch likely limits his ceiling, but Lauer projects as a solid #3 or #4 starter.

Others of Note: (College) T.J. Zeuch RHP University of Pittsburgh, Connor Jones RHP University of Virginia, Robert Tyler RHP University of Georgia, Logan Shore RHP University of Florida & Anthony Kay LHP University of Connecticut.  (High School) Braxton Garrett LHP, Matt Manning RHP, Ian Anderson RHP, Forest Whitley RHP

THE NatsGM Show Episode #71 – Guest Dr. Dan Brooks

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THE NatsGM Show Episode #71 is now available and we are proud to welcome back founder of BrooksBaseball.net and SaberSeminar, Dr. Dan Brooks!

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Thanks to Dan for graciously joining the show and to our sponsor, No Halftime!  Please Rate & Review the show on iTunes, and Subscribe as well.  Follow us on Twitter @Nats_GM.