Welcome back baseball fans to THE NatsGM Live Analysis of Day 3 of the 2014 MLB Winter Meetings. Yesterday was a much more active day than Monday, as we finally saw Jon Lester sign with the Chicago Cubs, and we saw trades involving Jeff Samardzija and Miguel Montero.
Today I am expecting a much more hectic day in terms of trades and signings, as we could see outfielders Matt Kemp and Justin Upton moved, along with pitchers Johnny Cueto or Cole Hamels. Not to mention both local teams the Washington Nationals and Baltimore Orioles have been eerily quiet thus far this winter, so we could see them jump into the Hot Stove today as well. I highly encourage you to join me with your thoughts, comments, and critiques via the Comments Section or on Twitter @NatsGMdotcom.
10:15am Update -> Look what happens when you fall asleep… After I departed at midnight the Cubs shortly thereafter finally signed free agent pitcher Jon Lester to a 6-year $155 million, along with a $15mm vesting option for a 7th year. This deal makes Lester one of the wealthiest pitchers in baseball, with an annual average value $25.8mm, which is just ahead of Justin Verlander and behind Clayton Kershaw.
As a baseball fan and hot stove fanatic, I am thrilled that Lester has finally made a decision, as his signing should open the flood gates on many of the trades and signings involving pitchers. It felt like most teams were waiting for this deal before moving on to supposed secondary options.
In addition, this is great for the Chicago Cubs fans, who have been clamoring for good baseball at Wrigley Field for many seasons. Their fanbase has been sold on prospects, future, and hope, and much like the Werth signing by Washington years ago, this announces that the future is now.
However, from a baseball perspective this signing makes me pause and question it. Lester turns 31 in January and while he is an outstanding pitcher, his career numbers do not scream Ace- 3.58 ERA, 3.58 FIP, 8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, and 1.276 WHIP. On the other hand, Lester is a model of durability, making 30+ starts in seven consecutive seasons and has thrown 200+ innings in six of the past seven years. In addition, Lester is coming off the best season of his career in 2014, throwing 219.2 innings with a 2.46 ERA.
For me, Lester is a quality #2 starting pitcher on a World Series contender, much in the mold of Jordan Zimmermann. Those type of pitchers are extremely rare and deserve to be paid well, but the length of the contract is the issue at hand. While I expect Lester to thrive for the first few years of this deal in the shift to the NL, years 4, 5, and 6 concern me here for the Cubs. I would have eventually made this deal if I was the Chicago GM, but this contract has significant risk without extreme reward built into it. Congrats to the Cubs fans, but buyer-beware down the road.
10:45am Update -> So Houston has not been bluffing in their efforts to bolster their bullpen, as media reports have confirmed they have signed former San Diego reliever Luke Gregorson to a 3-yr contract and are close to signing St. Louis pitcher Pat Neshek to a 2-yr deal.
Gregorson has established himself as one of, if not the top, 8th inning setup man in baseball and today signs for 3-years and $18.5 million. He does not receive the credit he deserves due to the small media market and large ballpark, but Gregorson has a 2.75 ERA over the last six seasons, which rates 4th among relievers who have thrown more than 350 innings. At 30-years-old Gregorson now relies less on a powerful fastball and more on a devastating slider and the ability to induce grounders.
Neshek signed a minor league contract with St. Louis last winter and took advantage of the spring training invite to post a dynamic season with a 1.87 ERA and 9,1 K/9 rate over 67.1 innings pitched. An extreme sidearm pitcher, Neshek is unbelievably difficult on righties and should slot in as Houston’s 8th inning guy before Gregorson. Rumors have Neshek receiving $12.5 million over the next two years.
These signings solidify a bullpen that has been a disaster in recent seasons; in addition both pitchers could find themselves as interest trade chips this summer if Houston continues to struggle and contenders covet bullpen upgrades. While signing bullpen arms to reasonable dollars feels slightly odd for the woeful Astros, I think they got good deals on both pitchers and will receive solid value for their money.
11:05am -> Serious question, would you rather have drinks with Jon Lester or Lester Freamon?
1:35pm Update -> As I enjoy a chicken burrito for lunch from Fish Taco (delicious Mexican food, non-paid plug), I am surprised we have not seen more “low-level” baseball swaps thus far this week. Certainly trades with superstars involve many, many variables making them hard to make, but I am somewhat shocked we have not seen more “I have excess Position X, you have excess Position Y, we can help fill each others’ needs” deals done.
3:30pm -> I just saw on twitter my friend Joe Hamrahi has decided to leave Baseball Prospectus to pursue other opportunities. He has been tremendously kind to me personally and to my site, so I want to wish him a public thank you and congratulations. Hope to buy you a beer or four in the future!
5pm -> After an active morning the Hot Stove feels more like a nearly burned out campfire right now. Perhaps happy hour will spur the activity at the Winter Meetings, cheers!
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5:30pm Update -> Looks like beer worked, as multiple outlets are now reporting the Los Angeles Dodgers have acquired Philadelphia shortstop Jimmy Rollins. We are awaiting official confirmation and the player(s) going back to the Phillies, but this looks like the first signal that Philadelphia could be rebuilding.
6pm -> Further to the previous point, now media reports have the Phillies sending talented left-handed reliever Antonio Bastardo to the Pittsburgh Pirates. The return is unknown, but Bastardo has 1-year left under contract.
6:05pm -> Sources are now confirming that the Phillies will receive LHP Joely Rodriguez, a pitching prospect who possesses mid-90s gas along with a slider and a changeup. I have seen Rodriguez in person and even though he is a little older at 23-years-old, he has a major league future. This is a reasonable return for 1-year of Antonio Bastardo.
Pittsburgh Pirates B+ Philadelphia Phillies B-/C+
7:10pm Update -> We have another trade to announce, and this one is a doozy – The Los Angeles Dodgers have sent RHP Dan Haren and SS Dee Gordon to the Miami Marlins for LHP Andrew Heaney, 2B Enrique Hernandez, RHP Chris Hatcher, and Catcher Austin Barnes.
This deal is a slam dunk for the Dodgers, as the arrival of Jimmy Rollins left Dee Gordon expendable, and Los Angeles is more than happy to part with Haren and his $10mm salary in 2015. In addition, they receive Heaney, who six months ago was the top left-handed pitching prospect in the minor leagues, along with three other prospects I admit to knowing nothing about. For the Dodgers to receive such excellent salary relief, to sell high on Gordon’s solid 1st half of 2014, AND receive four prospects, this is a massive win for LA.
From Miami’s perspective, I simply do not understand this deal. Dee Gordon is a average major league shortstop but will likely shift to the keystone in deference to Adeiny Hechavarria. This will put even more pressure on Gordon’s bat, easily the weakness in his game, and the move to Miami’s park will not bolster his offense. That said, he and Hechavarria should form a dynamic middle infield, a major plus on the lightning quick turf in Miami.
Haren’s inclusion is truly puzzling, as he is far from a bargain contract-wise and the Marlins do not seem to lack for back-end starting pitching. One must assume Haren was a necessary evil to make this trade happen, but he would be a deal-breaker for me.
Los Angeles A- Miami D
8pm -> Tons of rumors currently flying around, as Ervin Santana is connected to the Minnesota Twins and nearly every reporter in San Diego is stating the Nationals are talking about numerous deals including a blockbuster. It will be fun to watch the baseball world the next 16 hours or so before they go their separate way.
10pm Update -> Looks like we have a new trade to report, as speculation has LHP Wade Miley going from the Arizona Diamondbacks to the Boston Red Sox. While Miley is not the top-of-the-rotation guy the Red Sox need to replace Jon Lester, he has pitched 200+ innings two years in a row and should stabilize the back of their rotation. Miley is arbitration-eligible for the first time this winter, and will not reach free agency until 2018.
In return for rotation mainstay Miley, the Diamondbacks get young right-handed pitchers Rubby De La Rosa and Allen Webster, along with another minor leaguer. This feels like a strong return for Miley, as both De La Rosa and Webster are major league ready pitchers with talent who should see significant time on the mound for Arizona in 2015. These two pitchers feels like a nice return for Miley, so the minor leaguer feels like a cherry-on-top to this deal.
Arizona Diamondbacks B/B+ Boston Red Sox B
11:30pm Update -> Ken Rosenthal is reporting the Los Angeles Dodgers are close to signing right-handed starting pitcher Brandon McCarthy to a 4-year contract. McCarthy would take the rotation slot vacated earlier in the evening by the trade of Dan Haren to Miami. We shall await further details of this signing.
Midnight Final Update -> We are still waiting to hear the final contract terms of the McCarthy deal, and there are plenty of rumors swirling around San Diego as the final hours count down at the 2014 Winter Meetings. The Rule 5 draft occurs tomorrow morning at 9am and after that is the traditional mad dash to the airport to return home.
I will return tomorrow morning to cover the Rule 5 draft, along with any news on the Final Day of the Winter Meetings. Thank you for joining for the past three days for my coverage – Bye For Now!