Scouting the MLB Draft – ECU’s Jeff Hoffman and LSU’s Aaron Nola

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Sure we are just a month into the major league calendar, but the college baseball season is in full swing and the MLB Draft is now only six weeks away. This class is shaping up to be one of the more talented groups in the past couple years, with impressive depth in college pitching and toolsy high school athletes.

Recently I had the opportunity to watch two of the best pitching prospects in this year’s draft class, East Carolina University’s Jeff Hoffman and Louisiana State’s Aaron Nola. These are my scouting notes on two of the biggest names in college baseball.

Jeff Hoffman RHP East Carolina University

Date Scouted: 4.4.14 vs. Rice (8 IP, 1 ER, 7 Hits, 1 Walk, 7 strikeouts)

After an exceptional 2013 summer in the Cape Cod League, Hoffman entered 2014 as one of the top prospects for the June draft. Upon this viewing, Hoffman did little to disappoint, overwhelming the Rice lineup with a mid-90s fastball, a low-to-mid-90s 2-seam fastball, a devastating late-breaking slider, and the occasional curveball. Hoffman possesses a near ideal pitcher’s frame, listed at 6-4 192lbs, with a wiry body type and plenty of projection remaining. Hoffman does not have the best delivery, as there is plenty of movement  including a dip-and-drive motion in his delivery, and he tends to fall off towards first base. As a professional, Hoffman will likely try to polish and refine his delivery, in hopes of helping him repeat his motion and improving his command of the strike zone.

The word that continually comes to mind in terms of Hoffman is “electric”, as his 4-pitch repertoire especially his above-average or better fastball and slider give him top-of-the-rotation potential. In order for him to reach his enormous ceiling, Hoffman must polish his delivery, refine his fastball command, and improve his changeup. Hoffman projects as a mid-rotation starting pitcher or electric closer, with the potential to develop into a #2; and yes, if everything clicks and he makes improvements, a potential #1 starter. There is plenty of risk involving Hoffman as a prospect, but his raw tools are as good as anyone in this draft class. Hoffman is one of the most electric pitching prospects in the past few years, and should be drafted inside the top-10 picks this June, with an outside chance of being selected 1st overall.
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NatsGM Projected Draft Status –> Top-10 Picks of Round 1

Aaron Nola RHP Louisiana State University

Date Scouted: 4.17.14 vs. Mississippi (7.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 Hits, 2 walks, 7 strikeouts)

Against a quality Rebels’ lineup on ESPNU in prime time, Nola showed all the qualities and moxie one might expect from a future 1st round draft pick. On this evening, Nola featured a low-90s fastball that he located to both sides of the plate, along with a high-70s curveball with late bite; in addition, Nola showed the occasional high-70s changeup with arm-side fade, though this pitch lags behind his other offerings. Nola has an impressive pitchers physique with thin legs, a high waist, and the frame to add weight as he matures. Nola does not have the cleanest delivery, as he uses an active, across-his-body-type delivery which he repeats quite impressively. I assume his motion deceives hitters and makes it difficult to locate the ball during his delivery.

What truly separates Nola is his exceptional ability to repeat his delivery and continually pounding the strike zone with quality strikes. His fastball velocity is not elite, perhaps reaching a maximum 93mph, and his inconsistent changeup limits his professional ceiling to a strike-throwing #3 or #4 starter. That said his elite control, along with an above-average fastball and curveball, and repeatable delivery gives Nola one of the highest prospect floors in this year’s crop. His ceiling will keep him out of the top-10 picks, but Nola should be taken in the 1st round to a team looking for a quick to the majors, relatively safe prospect. This is one of my favorite players in this year’s draft, and will be an excellent value selection this summer.

NatsGM Projected Draft Status –> Mid To Late 1st Round

1 thought on “Scouting the MLB Draft – ECU’s Jeff Hoffman and LSU’s Aaron Nola

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